The draft agreement which contains the entry referring to climate change and human mobility, has not been adopted at this COP. This would be just one of the many reasons people say the talks failed. According to this document made available on the UNFCCC website, the text will continue to be worked on by Parties and further narrowed down in future climate talks. In regards to the actual paragraph itself, according to this article “many have sought to alter the passage and Australia has attempted to water it down and has requested more research.”

The “CARE and Migration” panel talk was cancelled. This was most likely due to the fact that many of the civil society observers that were supposed to be speaking at various events were not able to gain entry into the Conference venue due to logistical issues, so many ended up cancelling their trip to Copenhagen altogether.

The event “Climate adaptation continuum, migration and displacement – Copenhagen and beyond” at the Conference last Wednesday was well attended and progressive with the issue. It had a very distinguished panel and included William Lacy Swing, Director General of IOM, and António Guterres, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Among the issues discussed at the side event, the notion of increased illegal human trafficking and smuggling was brought up by the panel in regards to a possible continuation of lack of formal and legal recognition of climate migration. The future challenges of incorporating migration into adaptation strategies also continued to be discussed. Check out this page for a more comprehensive summary of this event.

Here is the webcast from the press conference, “UNU, UNHCR and IOM: migration/displacement and climate change” which took place last Wednesday. It seemed very rushed but many important questions from the press were addressed by the panel.

During the side events, it seemed that for every one question from the participants, there were more questions raised. Delegates from Bangladesh asked many questions and pleaded their case at every migration event I attended. They are on the front lines of climate change and for them, this was an opportunity for the people at the top to hear their voices.

Overall, the issues of migration and displacement from the effects of climate change were not addressed properly at COP15, as mitigation measures were still the predominant focus. Although climate migration and displacement is currently happening around the world, it is still fairly new on the international agenda and much remains to be done. However it is very clear that concrete action is needed right now in the most vulnerable and affected countries, regardless of formal recognition in a legally binding treaty.

As a side note, I also had the chance to see the documentary film “Climate Refugees” by Michael P. Nash. Although I strongly disagree with the message that climate migration is a national security threat for developed countries in which this film graphically portrays, I still think there are some good interviews and comments made as well as ways forward to help mitigate the effects of climate change.

There are a few publications that were released during or just before COP15 that you should be aware of. The first is “Climate Changed: People Displaced” by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC). This is an excellent thematic report which aims to raise awareness of displacement as one of the humanitarian impacts of climate change. The lead author of this report, Vikram Kolmannskog, also published the working paper “Climate change, disaster, displacement and migration: initial evidence from Africa” for UNHCR’s “New Issues in Refugee Research” series. The report presents evidence from Burundi and Somalia, which are among the most vulnerable countries in the world.

Another one is by IOM and is entitled “Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence”. The book focuses on seven key areas of research relating to the topic of migration, the environment and climate change, covering issues such as data challenges, research methods, sudden environmental and slow-onset events, and policy responses.

Lastly, here is a press release by IOM entitled “Greater efforts needed to tackle environmental migration beyond Copenhagen”, which was released on International Migrants Day on December 18, which also happened to be the last day of the Conference.

Here are a few more pics from inside Bella Center and around Copenhagen, as well as some from the side events I attended in the second week. A special shout-out to all of the readers of the blog that I had the honor to meet in person at the Conference!

At the “Climate Change and Migration: Transformations or Humanitarian Crises?” event at Development and Climate Days, many issues were discussed such as migration as adaptation as well as the notion of national security versus human security in the climate migration discourse. Loss of culture and identity was also discussed when talking about entire relocation of a nation such as Tuvalu.

Here is a good article from Reuters that covers the “Kiribati: Our road to Copenhagen” side event at COP15. During the event, the people of Kiribati made it apparent that they hold a disheartened attitude from the reluctant possibility of long-term relocation through the means of skilled migration programs in other countries.

This week the climate negotiations continue along with numerous other events at the Bella Center and around Copenhagen. Things will come down to the wire as negotiators from the 192 countries participating in the talks review several draft texts in order to seal a deal before heads of state, including Obama, arrive later in the week. Check out the COP15 website for daily roundups of the negotiations as well as other related news.

Here are a few pictures from the COP15 as well as some pics from a few of the migration and displacement events I attended.

For the first time the text dealing exclusively with adaptation to climate change – one of several tracks up for negotiation – has included a substantive paragraph on the need to consider planned relocation for people displaced by climate change, with “interstate cooperation” to respond to their needs.

The text has yet to be adopted, but this paragraph had “no opposition from all the countries, and is most likely to go through,” said Bruno Sekoli, chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) group at the talks.

Koko Warner, head of the Environmental Migration, Social Vulnerability and Adaptation Section at the UN University, described the inclusion as “very significant”. She and other academics and aid agencies have been lobbying and working with countries at the talks for the recognition of migration and displacement as part of adaptation action.

The term “climate refugees” was first mentioned in the adaptation text at talks in Bonn, Germany, in June. The term has been dropped, but the need to help people who “either cross an international border as a result of, or find themselves abroad and are unable to return owing to, the effects of climate change” has gained prominence.

There was widespread consensus that the current legal definition of a refugee should not be tampered with to accommodate those affected by environmental factors, and researchers agreed that most countries would accept a new concept and a separate convention on people displaced by environmental changes.

Mizan Khan, a member of the Bangladesh delegation and part of the team working on migration in the adaptation text, said he was certain the issue would be endorsed by all countries, which would set in motion the process of considering an international legal framework for the status of people displaced by climate change.

“We are considering the term ‘climate change-induced displacees’,” said Khan, who teaches environmental science at the North South University in Bangladesh.

Among the other immediate steps taken, he suggested, should be setting up an international financing mechanism to fund the relocation of internally displaced people, and beginning a process to consider the status of countries such as Maldives, a group of low-lying islands in the Indian Ocean, whose entire population might have to be relocated because of the rising sea level.

Global meetings were marked by emotional appeals from island states, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu, which could become largely uninhabitable by a one-metre rise in sea level. The Maldives has played a leading role in creating awareness of the issue for the past two decades.

The debate on “climate refugees” has been controversial because of the sheer numbers of people likely to be affected, but the UN University’s Warner said research organizations and humanitarian agencies emphasized that most of the migration and displacement caused by climate change would be internal.

As the impact of climate change intensifies, estimates of the number of people displaced by natural disasters or rising sea levels have grown from 50 million in 2010, to hundreds of millions or even one billion by 2050.

“Forced movements, both internal and transboundary, can partially be prevented by timely and adequate adaptation, including disaster risk reduction measures,” Warner said. “This needs to be combined with measures to better manage and increase the positive impact of voluntary population movements.”

The considerable attention to the issue in Copenhagen follows the African Union’s recognition in an international agreement, the Kampala Convention, that natural disasters as well as conflict and generalized violence were key factors in uprooting people.

In 2008 climate-related natural disasters like droughts, hurricanes and floods forced 20 million people out of their homes, while 4.6 million people were internally displaced by conflicts, according to a recent joint study by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

Source: IRIN

I have compiled a list of migration and displacement related events in Copenhagen which are listed by earliest to latest date. Most of these events aim to raise awareness on the issue while working towards viable solutions. I may have missed a few so if you see any that are not here please contact me. I will be updating this post as I come across new event info. If you are a reader of this blog and also happen to be in Copenhagen for the Conference, contact me if you would like to meet up!

**updated Dec 10**

Climate Refugee Camp
DanChurchAid
Wednesday, Dec 9 until Friday, Dec 11
Cathedral Square (Frue Plads): Click here for map location.
For three days, a group of DanChurchAid volunteers will stay in a climate refugee camp at Frue Plads. Visitors are welcome to stop by and experience the life of refugees who have fled their homes due to drought, flooding or extreme weather conditions.

The refugee camp will be inhabited by people from all over the world with different stories and experiences of climate change. Stop by for a chat, or try out one of the protein biscuits that refugees often rely on for survival. There will be different lectures and happenings throughout the event were the public is welcome to participate.

Kiribati: Our road to Copenhagen
Kiribati
Wednesday, Dec 9 – 13:00—14:30
COP15 venue: Liva Weel
We are first in line to face irreversible climate change impacts. Hear how our islands will change in our childrens’ lifetimes and our plans to adapt. Learn from this practical experience. Join us and our partners in calling for a meaningful global response.

Talk: Claiming Rights for Climate Refugees
South Asia Alliance for Poverty Eradication (SAAPE), LDC Watch, and Equity and Justice Working Group Bangladesh (EquityBD)
Friday, Dec 11 – 10:00—12:00
Green hall – Klimaforum09 Tietgensgade 65 DGI-byen 1704
Due to the climate change impacts there will be around 200 millions of climate induced displaced people by the year 2050 – 30 million of them in Bangladesh. Victims of such a displacement are not responsible for this fate, which has happened because of the high level of carbon emissions of developed countries.

Talk: Launch of International Campaign on Climate Refugees’ Rights (ICCR)
VOICE
Friday, Dec 11 – 13:00—15:00
Yellow Room – Klimaforum09, Onkel Dannys Plads 1, Forsamlingshuset. Click here for map location.
The launch of the Campaign on Climate Refugee Rights. Due to climate change the people of developing countries, including Bangladesh, will be displaced from their homes. Claiming their right to be resettled and to place climate refugee rights in a legal framework under the United Nations. Speakers: Ahmed Swapan Mahmud (Bangladesh), Suranjan Kutuwakuti (Sri Lanka), Penny Davies, (Sweden), Demba (Senegal), Caroline (El Salvador).

Climate change on human migration & displacement
United Nations University (UNU)
Ms. Koko Warner
Friday, Dec 11 – 13:20—13:40
COP15 venue: cc Solutions Studio
Dr. Warner will discuss empirical evidence on the impacts of climate change on human migration & displacement, from first time global survey (23 case studies) including glacial melt, sea level rise, desertification.

COP15: Climate Change and Migration: Transformations or Humanitarian Crises?
Stockholm Environment Institute
Saturday, Dec 12 – 11:00—12:30. By RSVP only.
Venue: Koncerthuset (The Concert House), DR Byen
Part of the Development and Climate Days: Exploring new landscapes of adaptation, questions that have only partial answers, this debate is coordinated by the Climate Change, Environment and Migration Alliance (CCEMA) and SEI.

Migration & resettlement in the South Pacific
Brot für die Welt (BfdW)
Mr. Thomas Hirsch
Saturday, Dec 12 – 13:20—13:40
COP15 venue: cc Solutions Studio
Rising sea levels lead to resettlement. The Head of State of an affected island discusses with experts and Pacific church leaders how to ensure compensation, the protection of human rights and adequate consideration of the issue in the negotiations.

“Climate Refugees” Documentary Film Screening
Michael P. Nash
Hosted by CARE International
Monday, Dec 14 – 20:00
Venue: Dagmar Theater, Jernbanegarde 2, 1608 Copenhagen V
CARE will be hosting the screening of Michael P. Nash´s documentary film “Climate Refugees: The Human Face of Climate Change” and press conference. Details forthcoming. Read more at www.climaterefugees.com.

Climate change, migration & displacement
United Nations University (UNU)
Tuesday, Dec 15 – 16:40—17:00
COP15 venue: cc Solutions Studio
Professor Walter Kaelin, Secretary General´s Special Representative on Internally Displaced People, will discuss the RSG´s views on the impact of climate change on migration & displacement.

CARE and Migration – panel
CARE International
Wednesday, Dec 16 – 10:00—12:00
Venue: DGI-byen
CARE, UN University and the Norwegian Refugee Council will host a parallel event on migration. Two reports will be presented – CARE’s report explores how environmental shocks and stresses, especially those related to climate change, can push people to leave their homes in search of “greener pastures”, or just to survive. Produced in collaboration with United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). The report estimates that by 2050 minimum 200 million people will migrate because of the changes in the climate / five concrete examples of how climate changes will affect the most vulnerable people.

Climate adaptation continuum, migration and displacement – Copenhagen and beyond
International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Wednesday, Dec 16 – 14:45—16:15
COP15 venue: Liva Weel
Heads of Agencies and delegates discuss state-of-the-art understanding of climate adaptation, migration and displacement and related challenges in policy, research & practice, ways to address them and the role of the UNFCCC framework. Together with NRC, the RSG on the HR of IDPs and other IASC partners.

UNHCR, climate change and displacement
United Nations University (UNU)
Wednesday, Dec 16 – 17:40—18:00
COP15 venue: cc Solutions Studio
Antonio Guiterres, High Commissioner, UN High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) will discuss UNHCR´s views on the impact of climate change on migration & displacement.

In front of them was the current revised version of the draft agreement (negotiating text) which was to be further streamlined and narrowed down for a possible international deal on climate change adaptation, mitigation, financing, and technology transfer. The text which came out of the session has recently been publicly released on the UNFCCC website.

The two entries in the “Adaptation” section relating to human mobility have been unbracketed from the previous draft texts, which means it has been agreed on to be included in the current 174-page text to be finalized at COP15. The first entry is found on page 38, paragraph 12(c) and reads as follows:

12. To enhance adaptation action at international level, all Parties [shall] [should] [may] implement specific programmes, projects, activities, strategies and measures, including:
…
(c) Activities related to national, regional and international migration and displacement or planned relocation of persons affected by climate change, while acknowledging the need to identify modalities of inter-state cooperation to respond to the needs of affected populations who either cross an international frontier as a result of, or find themselves abroad and are unable to return owing to, the effects of climate change;

The other entry is on page 56, paragraph 13(b) and reads as follows:

13. All Parties [shall] [should] jointly undertake action under the Convention to enhance adaptation at the international level, including through:
…
(b) Activities related to migration and displacement or planned relocation of persons affected by climate change, while acknowledging the need to identify modalities of interstate cooperation to respond to the needs of affected populations who either cross an international frontier as a result of, or find themselves abroad and are unable to return owing to, the effects of climate change.

The advances made in this draft agreement from last UNFCCC talks on the recognition and protection of the rights of people who become displaced or forced to migrate due to the effects of climate change are monumental. It is now up to Parties at COP15 to determine whether this entry will remain in the final treaty, as well as being signed on to itself. Leave a comment below regarding what you think the outcome will be at COP15.

(IRIN) November 24, 2009 – The humanitarian aid community will not only be keeping tabs on the conversations about “who will cut how much [greenhouse gas emissions]” at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP15), but will also have their antennae tuned to talks on issues already affecting their constituencies.

The aim of the two-week meeting from 7 Dec to 18 Dec 2009 is to draw up a deal on cutting harmful emissions.

UN agencies like the Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said the impact of climate change-related events was already unfolding and the humanitarian community had to focus beyond Copenhagen.

The aid agencies are not party to the negotiations, but hope to inform – and perhaps influence – the process by highlighting in a series of presentations on the sidelines of the conference what some of the communities they work with are already experiencing. They are also hoping to find answers to some sticky questions that will enable them to help poor communities cope with a changing climate.

Here is a guide to what the humanitarian will be watching for in Copenhagen:

Finance for adaptation

* How much money will be available to help communities adapt to an increasingly erratic climate?

Top of everyone’s list is money for adaptation to help build communities’ resilience, and various cost estimates for climate change adaptation have been put forward in the past few years. The World Bank, which produces one of the most authoritative, recently announced that it would take between US$75 billion and $100 billion a year from 2010 to 2050, and this figure is expected to be bandied around in Copenhagen.

Ilana Solomon, a policy advisor at aid agency ActionAid USA, reckoned the World Bank’s projected figures were an “underestimate”, as they did not take into account community-based adaptation strategies.

Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, a scientist at the World Health Organization (WHO) reminded people not to forget funding for services like agriculture, water supply, sanitation, and disease early warning systems, which not only protect and save lives but reduce vulnerability to climate change in the future.

Aid agencies are hoping for a multi-sectoral approach; the text on adaptation so far on the table is wide-ranging, calling for the minimizing of threats to “life, human health, livelihoods, food security, assets, amenities, ecosystems and sustainable development”.

The Global Environment Facility (GEF) – the financial mechanism of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – manages two special funds: the Least Developed Countries Fund, and the Special Climate Change Fund, which both disburse money for adaptation projects.

GEF will also operate the new Adaptation Fund, which will raise money from a levy of about two percent on credits generated by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), set up under the Kyoto Protocol.

The mechanism allows industrialized countries to earn and trade emission credits by implementing projects in developed countries or developing ones, and then to put these credits towards meeting their greenhouse gas emission targets.

But the money expected to be raised through this mechanism will not be enough, which is why countries have been exploring other options. “There are various proposals for how to raise the money, but so far few pledges of cash,” said Mike Shanahan of the UK-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

He cited Mexico’s proposal for a Green Fund, to which all countries except the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) would contribute according to their gross domestic product (GDP), emissions and population. The LDCs have proposed an International Air Passenger Adaptation Levy on airfares, which could raise $10 billion to $15 billion per year for adaptation.

Money mechanics

*How will money be channelled to affected countries or communities?

Balgis Elasha, one of the authors of a report on adaptation by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global scientific body, said she hoped for a commitment to increased funding for adaptation, but also wanted a funding mechanism that would help affected countries access the money easily.

Poor countries want the UNFCCC to have control over whichever funding mechanism is approved; they claim that so far disbursements have been slow and the process for approval very complex. ActionAid’s Solomon said vulnerable countries had “lost their faith” in GEF’s ability to manage climate finance, and the debate on the amount of finance on the table “directly relates to the conversation” on “defining vulnerability”.

Defining vulnerability

*How do you define who is most vulnerable to climate change?

Finding a scale to determine how vulnerable developing countries are to climate change – which will help decide the fair allocation of adaptation funds – is the subject of a hot debate. Solomon said the “scarce resources” available for adaptation had prompted the need to define who was most vulnerable.

In fact, a GEF representative first raised the issue at an earlier round of climate change talks in Bonn, Germany, in June 2009, saying the facility was examining a possible vulnerability index to distribute resources equitably.

Experts told IRIN that establishing the level of vulnerability would be very complicated, as various indices could be used. In its Fourth Assessment Report the IPCC said the vulnerability of a society to climate change was influenced by its development path, physical exposures, distribution of resources, prior stresses, and social and government institutions.

“All societies have inherent abilities to deal with certain variations in climate, yet adaptive capacities are unevenly distributed, both across countries and within societies,” the IPCC report pointed out. Essentially, a formula that could establish a country’s capacity to adapt to climate change would have to be found.

ActionAid’s Solomon said that with discussions on vulnerability limited to countries, vulnerable populations such as women, who should be specifically targeted for adaptation resources, could be overlooked.

Stephanie Long from Friends of the Earth (FOE) International, an environmental NGO, said they would see that civil rights and redress for communities were included in climate financing mechanisms, which “can be triggered” should projects proposed or implemented to raise money have “adverse social, environmental and local economic impacts”.

Forests and forest-dwellers

* Will forest-dwelling communities receive benefits from REDD?

The REDD strategy – Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and (forest) Degradation – in developing countries, is expected to make it into the final deal.

“Under REDD, countries that reduce deforestation could gain credits for reduced emissions,” said IIED’s Shanahan. “These credits could be sold on international carbon markets, compensated through a fund paid by developed nations or, as looks most likely, paid for using a combination of both approaches.”

Deforestation, a major driver of climate change, is responsible for 17.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions – way ahead of emissions from the transport sector, which account for just over 13 percent – according to the IPCC.

Stopping this source of emissions could help limit climate change, and “also bring huge co-benefits for communities and biodiversity, but only if it is designed well,” Shanahan noted.

The challenge would be to ensure that the money actually went into protecting the forests, “with all of their natural ecological processes that humanity depends on, rather than encourage logging and replacement of forests with plantations, which only companies will benefit from, and which would lead to massive losses of biological diversity,” he said.

“It is also key to ensure that this money benefits forest-dependent communities, who have been wise custodians of the forest for generations. If not, it could simply line the pockets of powerful elites, including foreign companies.”

A central issue would be to address questions concerning forest tenure, and ensuring that forest-dependent communities were legally entitled to benefit. FOE’s Long said they were keeping tabs on this issue.

Climate “migrants”

*What about the rights of people displaced by increasing and more intense natural disasters?

Alina Narusova, migration policy specialist at the International Organization for Migration (IOM), noted that although the negotiating text referred to migration and displacement, “it depends on whether it will still be there by the time COP15 [the Copenhagen meeting] starts.” NGOs such as hers are organizing side events to ensure the issue stays top-of-mind.

Long said her NGO was looking for some recognition and protection of the rights of people forced to migrate due to climate change, and a mechanism to address the displacement of large numbers of climate “refugees must be incorporated into adaptation funding”.

In 2008 climate-related natural disasters like droughts, hurricanes and floods forced 20 million people out of their homes – many more than the 4.6 million displaced by conflicts – according to a recent joint study by OCHA and the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.

Agriculture

*Will food security and agriculture get their due?

Agriculture is the main source of food and income for half the world’s population; it is the activity most vulnerable to the impact of climate change, but is also a major source of dangerous greenhouse gas emissions.

About 14 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions, mostly carbon dioxide, come from agriculture; around 74 percent of total agricultural emissions originate in developing countries.

“The question is the extent to which food security, agriculture and poverty alleviation are mentioned [in the final text],” said Gerald Nelson, a senior researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), a US-based think-tank that has been trying to make the case for agriculture.

A section on agriculture in the negotiating text calls for the development of efficient and productive agricultural systems that not only reduce emissions but also help the activity adapt to climate change; it also calls on the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) to prepare a work programme to help achieve this.

IFPRI’s Nelson said he would watch for “whether there will be a SBSTA work programme on agriculture and, if so, what it will include”. He also wanted to see whether payments to developing country farmers for sequestering carbon in the soil would be allowed, and what mechanisms might be used.

Health

*Is anyone paying attention to protecting people’s health?

“Health was named as a priority” in the original negotiating text, “but it is sometimes forgotten,” said WHO’s Campbell-Lendrum. Countries – mostly in the developing world – could be spending anywhere from $6 billion to $18 billion a year by 2030 to manage additional costs to health services as a result of climate change, he noted.

This figure was based on an assessment by WHO, which looked at studies on the impact of climate-sensitive illnesses like diarrhoeal disease – the second leading infectious cause of childhood mortality – and accounted for around 1.8 million deaths each year.

Source: IRIN

Ban said that the global talks on climate change have also reached a “critical period” in the weeks ahead of the Dec. 7-18 climate conference.

On Tuesday, African nations staged a one-day walkout from the UN climate talks in Barcelona, Spain, to press demands that negotiations focus more heavily on carbon emission cuts by rich nations. The protesting countries said they would be hardest hit by the effects of global warming.

“Negotiations have recognized that migration is a likely consequence of climate impacts. Populations will relocate due to more extreme weather, including prolonged droughts, intensive storms and wildfires,” Ban said.

“In Africa, expanding desertification is … prompting more people to leave rural areas. So far these movements have occurred within countries. But that could very well change over time,” he said.

Ban spoke at an international conference on immigration Wednesday in Greece, where he began a two-day official visit.

“Protecting vulnerable communities must be a priority,” he said. “We need action in Copenhagen. We will continue to push for the most ambitious agreement possible.”

In London on Tuesday, Ban acknowledged that agreements on firm carbon emission cuts may not be reached in Copenhagen, but that progress toward that goal could be made.

Source: Cop15.dk

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Related Links:
» Climate agreement needed to prevent migration: UN – AFP via Yahoo News – Nov 4, 2009

There are now two entries in the latest version of the negotiating text relating to climate change and human mobility. The entries call on nations to implement and finance plans to adapt to climate change by accounting for possible migrations. The first is now found on page 38 in paragraph 26(f) and is as follows:

(f) [[Means to protect] [Activities related to national and international [migration of]
[displacement of] [planned relocation of] [responses to]] [climate [refugees] [migrants]]
[persons] [individuals and peoples] [displaced by] [affected by] [extreme climate events]
[the [adverse] impact of climate change].]]

The other entry is on page 41 in paragrapgh 35(q) and reads as follows:

(q) [Activities related to national and international migration and displacement or planned relocation of persons affected by climate change.]]

There has not been much progress made from the previous version of the text, as both are still bracketed which means it’s still flagged for approval by Parties. Addressing the media on the final day of the Bangkok session, executive secretary of the UNFCCC Yvo de Boer spoke of a constructive two weeks of talks, and said that “all the ingredients for a successful outcome in Copenhagen are on the table”. However, there is no guarantee as of yet, that the entry relating to climate migration will remain in the final agreement. The last session before Copenhagen will be held from November 2-6 in Barcelona.

Male, the capital of the Maldives. With an average ground level of 1.5 metres above sea level, it is the country with the lowest highest point in the world, at 2.3 metres. Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

(IRIN) October 5, 2009 – Up to half a million people in the Pacific will lose their homes and their countries to rising sea levels because small island nations cannot persuade the rest of the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently, campaigners say.

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is calling for a significant reduction in global emissions so the world’s temperature does not rise more than 1.5 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels.

But after a week of negotiations in Bangkok before the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December, developed and developing world countries have been unable to agree anything at all on emissions cuts, AOSIS said.

“We are not working through the options as negotiations, we are simply restating our positions. So we may arrive in Copenhagen with the parties still very far apart. It’s really setting up Copenhagen for failure or an inadequate result,” Leon Charles, chairman of the AOSIS negotiating team, who is from the Caribbean island of Grenada, told IRIN.

AOSIS, whose members are among the most vulnerable to climate change, “can’t live with” global temperature rises of two degrees, a possible target mentioned in the Bangkok talks, Charles said.

“We want 1.5 degrees centigrade in terms of mitigation and significant scaled-up and easily accessible finance. It’s about our survival,” he said.

An AOSIS statement issued after a preliminary meeting in New York in September said members were “profoundly disappointed” by the lack of will in the negotiations to protect small island developing states from climate change impacts.

Relocation issues

Campaigners said AOSIS’s prospects were dim, calling instead for more attention on how and where people from submerged countries would be relocated.

“Copenhagen won’t be enough. The islands will sink. In the Pacific region, we are looking at about 500,000 people who will need to move. But the islands aren’t talking about the migration issue,” said Marstella Jack, a Micronesian former attorney-general, who was in Bangkok with observers from the Climate Action Network.

Jack said leaders were “too chicken” to address the issue. “They don’t have the leverage to fight the issue with the developed world. Migration will hit us in the face before we realise it. But what happens to the sovereign country of Tuvalu, for example, if the land is gone?”

Tuvalu, with a population of less than 12,000, is heavily flooded every spring by ever more destructive tides. The total land surface of Tuvalu, which comprises nine small coral atolls, is 26 sqkm and on average, it is less than 2m above sea level.

“We are just waiting, and when the time comes, we won’t be Tuvalans any more, just climate change refugees,” said Taukiei Kitara, of the Tuvalu Association of NGOs.

So far, only Mohamed Nasheed, president of the Maldives, has spoken openly about moving all 370,000 residents to another country if, as looks likely, rising waters cover the islands, most of which are less than 1.5m above sea level.

“There are tons of legal and sovereignty issues and we are negotiating aggressively. There are huge complications down the line and if we can avoid these through a strong climate change agreement, let’s do so,” said AOSIS’s Charles.

Losing identity

Any kind of displacement is a big issue in Pacific island culture, which links identity to land, Jack said. It is estimated that Micronesia’s low-lying islands, where most of the population lives, will be submerged by 2030.

“Our identity is tied to the tiny island we are from … So losing the land is losing our survival, because the very sense of survival is that piece of land,” she said.

“And once the island is gone, it’s gone for ever and there’s no identity left. That’s the biggest problem that we have, and we would have it even if the Australian government were to carve out a chunk of Queensland and say we could have sovereignty over it, which they aren’t likely to do.”

Some AOSIS members face different problems. The Caribbean island of Antigua and Barbuda has become so storm-wracked that 10 years from now, banks will cease insuring new projects, spelling an end to economic development, said Diann Black Layne, an ambassador in the islands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

But for the Pacific Islanders watching the water slowly rise around their homes, climate change is no longer about economics.

“The world is thinking about trade. But that’s not what climate change is about – it’s about us living, not drowning,” said Jack

Source: IRIN

Photo credit: UNFCC

Here is an update for those of you that are following the lead up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP15) this December. More than 2,000 representatives met at the latest round of the Climate Change Talks, which took place on August 10-14. The committee had the current revised version of the negotiating text in front of them, which is to be fully agreed on by COP15 in order for a post-Kyoto climate deal to take place.

There was a single sentence that was inserted in the previous version of the negotiating text proposed at the June Climate Change Talks, which relates to environmental migration. It calls on nations to implement plans to adapt to climate change by accounting for these possible migrations. This sentence was found in subparagraph 25(e) and stated at the time:

“Activities related to national and international migration/planned relocation of climate
refugees.”

Since then, subparagraph 25(e) has been updated/expanded to the following:

“[Activities related to national and international migration/planned relocation of climate
[refugees] [migrants] [displaced persons by extreme climate events].]

Alternatives to subparagraph 25 (e):
Alternative 1
[Activities related to national and international responses to people displaced by the impacts of climate change]
Alternative 2
[Activities related to national and international migration and displacement or planned relocation of persons affected by adverse impact of climate change]
Alternative 3
[Activities related to national and international migration/planned relocation of displaced individuals and peoples due to the adverse effects of climate change]“

It should be noted that every entry in the negotiating text which is contained in [square brackets] is an indication that it’s an unresolved issue. As you can see, there is still no solid agreement on this specific entry in the negotiating document. Instead, many still unagreed alternative sentences are presented.

Briefing the media on the last day of the informal consultations in Bonn, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer said that while selective progress had been made to consolidate the huge texts on the table, “at this rate, we will not make it”. “We seem to be afloat on a sea of brackets”, de Boer also said, referring to not only paragraph 25(e), but also the other unresolved issues in the text.

Work on the draft negotiating text will continue on September 28 in Bangkok at a two-week session. Delegates will then assemble for five days of pre-Copenhagen negotiations in Barcelona on November 2. The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen takes place from December 7-18, 2009. Do you think there will be a formal agreement made in time regarding the provision and financing mechanisms to protect people displaced by the impacts of climate change?

Related Links:
» [Square brackets] riddle 200 page text at Bonn informal talks – Examiner.com
» Gloomy Negotiators End Bonn Climate Talks – New York Times
» Closing Press Briefing, Bonn Climate Change Talks – August 2009 – YouTube video
» More From the Bonn Climate Change Talks – Towards Recognition