Environmental Refugees or Economic Migrants?

As the evidence for global environmental change has accumulated over the past decade, academics, policymakers, and the media have given more attention to the issue of “environmental refugees.” A major concern is whether environmental change will displace large numbers of vulnerable people in the developing world, particularly from rural areas where livelihoods are especially dependent on climate and natural resources. A widely cited article estimated that more than 25 million people were displaced by environmental factors in 1995.¹ Skeptics, however, derided these numbers as speculation.² In fact, despite dozens of academic publications and several international conferences on the issue, well-documented cases of environmentally induced migration are largely limited to dramatic events such as Hurricane Katrina in the United States and the creation of the Three Gorges Dam in China.³ The still unclear consequences of smaller-scale but more pervasive forms of environmental change such as droughts and soil degradation limit our ability to predict the scale and nature of future human displacements under accelerating global environmental change. However, new research shows that environmentally induced migration can be temporary and involve relatively short distances, in contrast to fears of large numbers of environmental refugees moving across international borders.

Demographic Studies of Migration in Ecuador and Indonesia

Migrants respond to economic, social, and demographic factors in addition to the environment. Assessing environmental influences on migration is complex and must take these other factors into account. Research on migration and the environment has also been limited by the lack of appropriate data sets and by disciplinary boundaries between migration studies and environmental science. Recently, however, studies by Sabine Henry, Douglas Massey, myself, and others have used approaches from demographic studies of migration, often in combination with Geographic Information Systems, to overcome these challenges. These studies link individual-level data on migration to local characteristics of the environment, then analyze the migration process using multivariate statistical models. This approach represents a significant advance over both small-scale case studies and country-level analyses.

Two studies by myself and colleagues have applied this approach in Ecuador and Indonesia. In Ecuador, I collected survey data from 400 households and constructed a database that addresses the influence of local environmental conditions on migration.⁴ The study region in the southern Ecuadorian Andes is prone to droughts and is an important center of out-migration to internal and international destinations. These data show that communities with adverse environmental conditions (low rainfall and steep slopes) sent more migrants to nearby destinations but fewer migrants to distant and international destinations. This pattern is inconsistent with the environmental refugees narrative that predicts large-scale migration over long distances, but is consistent with previous studies. For example, in Burkina Faso, rainfall variability increased internal migration but decreased international migration; and in Nepal, local environmental degradation increased short-distance moves but not long-distance moves.⁵

In Indonesia, I am participating in the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, which has collected a unique survey dataset in the region affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. In each year since the tsunami, this project has tracked and reinterviewed 10,000 households in Aceh and North Sumatra who were first interviewed in the February 2004 round of the Indonesian National Socioeconomic Survey. Together with colleagues I am using this dataset to examine population displacement following the tsunami.⁶ Our results indicate that, as expected, the tsunami led to high rates of displacement in damaged communities. However, contrary to expectations, most of the displaced remained in or near their origin community, a large proportion stayed with friends or family rather than entering camps, and many returned to their homes within a few months after the tsunami. Vulnerable populations such as the poor were no more likely to be displaced than others.

Most Environmental Migrants Move Short Distances

These are only two studies, but the picture they paint of environmentally induced migration is quite different from the dramatic images conjured by the term “environmental refugees”: Most environmental migrants moved short distances, adverse environmental conditions can actually reduce migration, and vulnerable populations are not necessarily more likely to be displaced. How to explain these results? Migration theory and geography provide some insights. First, a large number of studies have shown that individuals who are educated or better-off are more likely to migrate, due to the costs of migration and greater rewards for the educated. This fact suggests that environmental degradation might reduce migration, particularly to distant destinations, by reducing access to the resources needed to migrate. Second, if the environmental conditions that migrants are responding to vary on a small scale, then a local move might be enough to encounter better conditions or alternative livelihood opportunities.

However, neither of these perspectives is consistent with a view of vulnerable environmental refugees fleeing degradation over long distances or international borders. Instead, the narrative derives from a neo-Malthusian perspective in which vulnerable populations are assumed to have limited capacity to cope with adverse environmental conditions. This school of thought has been largely rejected by social scientists working on related human-environment issues and appears to have little explanatory power in this case.⁷

Our current limited understanding doesn’t allow us to predict with any clarity how migration might respond to future climate change. Large-scale natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and the Indian Ocean tsunami displace large numbers of people and the frequency of such events is likely to rise. The Indonesian case illustrates that even extreme events do not necessarily lead to an international refugee crisis. The consequences of more pervasive forms of environmental change such as droughts and soil degradation are less certain, but current research indicates that they are also unlikely to lead to large-scale movements of long-distance migrants. These studies make clear that environmentally induced migration is real and deserves to be on the international agenda, but simplistic views of massive numbers of “environmental refugees” moving across borders should be set aside.

1. Norman Myers, “Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon of the 21st Century,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 357, no. 1420 (2002): 609-13.
2. Richard Black, “Environmental Refugees: Myth or Reality?” Working Paper No. 34, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (2001).
3. Jeffrey Groen and Anne Polivka, “Hurricane Katrina Evacuees: Who They Are, Where They Are, and How They Are Faring,” Monthly Labor Review 131, no. 3 (2008): 32-51; and Li Heming and Philip Rees, “Population Displacement in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of the Yangtze River, Central China: Relocation Policies and Migrant Views,” International Journal of Population Geography 6, no. 6 (2000): 439-62.
4. Clark Gray, “Environment, Land and Rural Out-Migration in the Southern Ecuadorian Andes,” World Development 37, no. 2 (2009): 457-68.
5. Sabine Henry, Bruno Schoumaker, and Cris Beauchemin, “The Impact of Rainfall on the First Out-Migration: A Multi-Level Event-History Analysis in Burkina Faso,” Population and Environment 25, no. 5 (2004): 423-60; and Douglas Massey, William Axinn, and Dirgha Ghimire, “Environmental Change and Out-Migration: Evidence From Nepal,” Population Studies Center Research Report No. 07-615, University of Michigan (2007).
6. Clark Gray et al., “Tsunami-Induced Displacement in Sumatra, Indonesia,” paper presented at the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population International Population Conference, Marrakech, Sept. 27-Oct. 2, 2009.
7. Melissa Leach and James Fairhead, “Challenging Neo-Malthusian Deforestation Analyses in West Africa’s Dynamic Forest Landscapes,” Population and Development Review 26, no. 1 (2000): 17-43; Henrik Urdal, “People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited,” Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (2005): 417-34; and Eric Neumayer, “An Empirical Test of a Neo-Malthusian Theory of Fertility Change,” Population and Environment 27, no. 4 (2006): 327-36.

Source: Population Reference Bureau

Where and how: Mass scale forced displacement has been caused by tidal floods in the exposed coastal area and loss of land due to erosion in the main land river basins

The population living in South and South-East Asia on the coastline extending from the east coast of India to Myanmar have been buffeting by annual cyclones from the Bay of Bengal and ever increasing tidal floods. Due to its extensive coastal geography, Bangladesh is undoubtedly one of the most affected countries. Cyclones not only result in human casualties and destruction of property, but also leave behind perpetual tidal floods. Notably, over the last few years deadly cyclones have been commonplace: Cyclone Sidr of 2007, Nargis of 2008, Aila of 2009, and Laila of 2010. Bangladesh was hit directly by Sidr while Nargis, Aila, and Laila also wreaked havoc in Myanmar and India, respectively. Research in Dakshin Bedkashi (Koyra Upazila) reveals that the tidal flood water level has risen by 1 meter over 5 years (2004 to 2008) and it rose by an additional meter in 2009 and in 2010 it continues to rise further. Twelve coastal districts in the south of Bangladesh are particularly at risk: Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Laxmipur, Feni, Noakhali, Chittagong and Cox’s Bazar.

Around one million people have been rendered homeless due to river erosion in the mainland river basins over the last three decades, as the Brahmaputra-Jamuna continues to widen because of obstruction from upstream sediment and poor downstream erosion management. Official statistics show that the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, a major river system in Bangladesh, has widened by 11.8 km and from 8.3 km in the early ’70s, eroding about 87,790 hectares of land. (CEGIS, 2006). NGOs affiliated with ACR working in the mainland river basin report observing people forced to flee their traditional place of residence due to increasing river erosion. Ten districts are hotspots, namely Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Bogra, Sirajganj, Rangpur, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Mymensingh, and Netrakona.

Bangladesh is comprised of 64 districts, out of which 22 are at risk of climate-induced displacement.

Who and how many: The poorer people who used to live in exposed locations are the climate refugees and they are 6 million in number

The poorest people who live in the extremely exposed locations in the coastal belt and the mainland river basins of Bangladesh will be the first to become climate refugees in upcoming years.

Tidal floods have already badly affected 56% of the 422 unions (lowest unit in the local government) of the 48 upazilas (sub-districts) in the exposed coastal zone of Bangladesh. Most of the villages in the badly affected 236 unions are flooded by tidal saline water twice a day over the last 3 years. The Houses, Land, and Properties (HLP) of 2,462,789 people (32%) of 7,693,331 inhabitants (in the affected unions alone) have been destroyed by repeated cyclones and rising tides. Of them, 1,568,980 (64%) are languishing as Local Climate Refugees (LCR) on remaining embankments or higher ground in exposed zones; 675,113 (27%) are squatters, or Internal Climate Refugees (ICR), in cities including Dhaka; and 218,656 (9%) are have crossed international borders, as Global Climate Refugees (GCR), in order to earn an income. The situation on the exposed coast is worsening and it is predicted that the number of climate refugees will increase to 3 million people by the end of 2010.

River bank erosions have already badly affected 44% of the 407 unions (lowest unit in the local government) of the 36 upazilas (sub-districts) in the exposed mainland river basins of Bangladesh. Most of the villages in the badly affected 179 unions are being eroded by flash flood waters every year over the last 3 decades. Houses, Land, and Properties (HLP) of 1,452,588 people (42%) of the 3,490,500 inhabitants (in the affected unions alone) have been destroyed by annual river erosion often coupled with devastating floods. Of them, 951,531 (66%) are languishing as Local Climate Refugees (LCR) on neighboring embankments or higher ground in exposed zones; 375,793 (26%) are urban squatters, or Internal Climate Refugees (ICR), in internal cities, like Dhaka; 125,264 (8%) have crossed international borders and are Global Climate Refugees (GCR). The situation in the river basin is worsening and it is predicted that the number of climate refugees from the river basin will increase to 2 million by the end of 2010.

The remaining 397 upazilas, which are not dangerously exposed on the coastline, still are at sea-level and will perhaps generate another 2.1 million climate refugees. Thus, the total number of climate refugees in Bangladesh as of May 2010 stands at 6 million, out of which at least 1 million are living in Dhaka. The total number of climate refugees in Bangladesh is expected to increase to 7.5 million by the end of 2010.

Hotspots of climate refugees at the point of origin: Island upazilas of Koyra, Shyamnagar and Dacope in the west, and Kutubdia, Hatiya and Swandip in the east of the coastal belt of Bangladesh

In one way or another, all exposed upazilas are generating climate refugees, but some are more immediately and particularly exposed. The middle coast (Barisal Division) enjoys the comparative advantage of being an active delta with land formation in progress as well as a freshwater ecosystem, but the west (Khulna Division) and east (Chittagong Division) coast have been unlawfully deprived of that active delta privilege by India’s unilateral interception in the river course originating from the Himalayas. Hence the west coast has 3 hotspots i.e. Koyra and Dacope in Khulna district, and Shyamnagar in Satkhira district. The east coast also has 3 hotspots i.e. Kutubdia in Cox’s Bazar district, Swandip in Chittagong district and Hatiya in Noakhali district.

Response to the plight of the Climate Refugees

The Finance Minister of Bangladesh Government has said, “We are asking all our development partners to honour the natural right of persons to migrate. We can’t accommodate all these people – this is already the densest [populated] country in the world,” in a video interview with the Guardian. Repeated cyclones and tidal floods have substantially destroyed the life line of coastal dwellers.

More than 200 NGOs in Bangladesh are working for the resettlement of the climate refugees. They have participated, as a finalist, in the World Bank’s Global Competition on Climate Adaptation held on 10-13 November 2009 in Washington, D.C. but could not win a grant. However, the World Bank ’s Innovation Practice Manager wrote “We are indeed working on a range of ideas in which we can communicate with your host governments, other funders in the space, and like-minded partners who can support your projects and perhaps find ways to work with you” in a post of the NGOs’ Team Leader in World Bank’s DM Blog. NGOs are continuing to negotiate projects with potential donors on climate refugee issues.

Conclusion

Climate change is likely to lead to increase the number of climate refugees, and it is vital that evolving frameworks for climate change adaptation address this issue so that national and international communities can peacefully resettle climate refugees. Climate change ignores country borders making it a global problem; however, we cannot ignore country borders and have to begin to work regionally and globally for mutual benefits and interests. We welcome suggestions and assistance for effective and efficient resettlement of climate refugees.

*This article refers to climate-induced migrants as “refugees,” but Towards Recognition is of the stance that such a designation muddies the traditional definition of the term and could lead to weakened legal protection.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published on Displacement Solutions, but has been edited for Towards Recognition by Kayly Ober.

Residents gather to remove a fallen tree blocking a road in Changle, China, in Fujian province on Saturday. Photo credit: CNN

(CNN) August 10, 2009 – A deadly typhoon that slammed into China’s coastal provinces and Taiwan over the weekend has displaced nearly one million people and left dozens missing, state-run media reported Monday.

High winds and torrential rain of Typhoon Morakot hit coastal provinces Fujian and Zhejian hardest, and caused the worst flooding in decades in Taiwan — where flood waters as high as 7 feet were reported, China Daily reported.

The deadly typhoon swept across the Philippines and Taiwan’s Hualien region before crashing into eastern China, claiming nearly two dozens lives along the way, the newspaper reported.

The storm — measuring about 1,600 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) across — continued to pummel coastal China Monday, but forecasters said it is unlikely that Morakot would reach Shanghai, the country’s largest city, which sits further north along the coast.

Government officials expect the typhoon to cause more than 8.5 million yuan ($1.2 billion) in damages, the newspaper said.

Video from Taiwan showed a six-story hotel crashing into the floodwaters coursing below. The well-known hot springs resort had evacuated before the collapse.

At least seven people were killed, 32 wounded and 46 unaccounted for, according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency.

In China, five houses were destroyed as the front of the typhoon brought flooding rains to Wenzhou City in neighboring Zhejiang province just after 8 a.m. Sunday, Xinhua said. Three adults and a 4-year-old boy were buried in debris about 8 a.m. Rescue workers were unable to save the child, and he died, the city’s flood-control headquarters told the news agency.

A “red alert” — the highest degree in danger levels — was issued in Zhejiang, where more than 35,000 vessels were called back from sea, China Daily reported, citing provincial flood control officials.

More than 300 homes collapsed, and more than 16,000 hectares (39,500 acres) were flooded, Xinhua said. The city’s airport was closed and 56 roads were rendered impassable.

As the eye of the storm reached Beibi, the sky turned completely dark, and people caught in rainstorms staggered as they used flashlights to see, Xinhua reported. Trees were being uprooted and torn apart by damaging winds.

Farmers were attempting to recapture large amounts of fish, flushed from mudflat fish farms by high winds, Xinhua said.

Nearly a million people were evacuated from Fujian and Zhejiang provinces as Morakot approached. Late Friday, the storm lashed Taiwan, killing two people, wounding 15 and knocking off power to about 650,000 households, according to Hong Kong’s Metro Radio.

Meanwhile, another typhoon hit west Japan on Monday, with 12 people confirmed dead.

Source: CNN

Photo credit: Munem Wasif / Agence VU

[Agence VU] In the last 10 years, farmers like Hatem Ali have had to disassemble and move their tin-and-bamboo houses five times to escape the encroaching waters of the huge Brahmaputra River in Kurigram. This river is swollen out of all proportion by severe monsoon that scientists attribute to global warming and melting ice in the Himalayas. Bangladesh with a population of 140 million people crammed into an area slightly smaller than the state of Illinois is a target of the most vulnerable to global warming.

Some must live with the memory of losing grip on their child when he is swept away by tidal waves at angry awakening of Sidr. Some may still view their lost crops swaying in the fields and today empty, while others have traces of dried tears on their cheeks when they remember their own piece of land swallowed by the fury of the river. Once, villagers happy, they have became climate refugees.

Munem Wasif is a documentary photographer born in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 1983. A graduate of Pathshala, the South Asian Institute of Photography, Wasif started his journalistic career as a feature photographer for the Daily Star, a leading English daily in Bangladesh. Now he is represented by Agence VU. In this photoset Wasif has put together a series of photographs which aim to tell stories of people who have lost their livelihood and way of living due to the ever growing issue of climate change.

Click here to view the slide show »

Source: Agence VU